https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aea8697

THE TWO FLAVORS of ADHD (hypoarousal vs weak sensory gating)

https://chatgpt.com/share/690037c4-7778-800c-8085-7aec8cc7db0b (tRNS vs others)

Because you keep picking cheap, curated bets. Tail risk lives in three places: leverage, lock-in, and garbage picks. “High taste, low effort” avoids all three.

Here’s the mechanics without the hand-waving:

• Low effort = low leverage. Catastrophic losses need commitment: big money, sunk time, reputational exposure, hard deadlines. If you barely invest, you can abandon fast. Small bets don’t implode; they fizzle. That alone slaughters the left tail.
• Taste is a quality filter. You sample from the top of the distribution. That shrinks the probability mass of truly bad outcomes before you even roll the dice. Good curation is pre-risk-reduction.
• Optionality and slack. Low effort preserves slack. Slack breaks failure cascades and lets you pivot when the world throws a brick. Optionality = lots of small call options with capped downside and unbounded-ish upside.
• Diversification by default. Many small, independent tries push you toward the law of large numbers. Aggregated variance drops; VaR and CVaR crawl back into their cave.
• Early stop rule. Low effort makes quitting cheap. You naturally cut losers and let winners run, which biases realized outcomes rightward while blocking deep left-tail excursions.

If you like fake math:

Tail risk ≈ leverage × variance × coupling / slack.

Low effort slashes leverage and coupling, taste cuts variance, and the slack you keep in reserve bumps the denominator. Left tail gets throttled.

Caveats so you don’t get cocky: