PHASE 1 / STRATEGY TRIAGE
Before testing a strategy, this page asks whether the investor intuition is worth believing.
在测试策略之前，这一页先问：这些常见的投资直觉，是否经得起验证？
How to read this page. This page is a map of research questions, not a list of finished strategies. Each document starts from a familiar investor intuition and asks whether a simple evidence test supports it.
阅读方式。 这一页是研究问题地图，不是成品策略清单。每份研究都从一个常见投资直觉出发，再用尽量简单的证据判断它是否站得住。
| Research document / 研究文档 | Intuition under test / 验证的直觉 | Current decision / 当前判断 | Where to read / 阅读位置 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short Leg | A long trend signal should also work when mirrored to the downside / 上涨趋势能做多，下跌趋势也应该能用同一条信号做空 | Rejected as core / 不进入核心 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
| Spot Long-Only | After short-side symmetry fails, spot trend may be the cleaner right-side expression / 做空对称性失败后，现货趋势可能是更干净的右侧表达 | Active baseline / 当前基准 | Research Library |
| Smart DCA | Valuation-aware accumulation may improve on fixed DCA / 根据估值调整投入，可能优于固定金额定投 | Candidate / 候选方向 | Research Library |
| Cross-Section | Coin selection may create alpha beyond broad alt beta / 币种筛选可能产生独立于山寨币整体 beta 的收益 | Observation / 条件性观察 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
| Funding Carry | Delta-neutral funding income may beat a simpler cash alternative after costs / 扣除成本后，中性 funding 收益可能优于现金替代品 | Archive current form / 当前形式归档 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
| Grid | Repeated small reversals may pay for inventory risk / 反复的小幅回归可能覆盖库存风险 | Archive / 归档 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
| BOX | A range that looks clear on a chart may be identifiable before the break / 图上清晰的箱体，可能在突破前被识别 | Archive / 归档 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
| Regime Filter | An ON/OFF gate may improve Long-Only without sacrificing its best trend years / 行情总开关可能改善 Long-Only，同时不牺牲最重要的趋势年份 | Archive / 归档 | Open brief below / 展开下方章节 |
Long-Only and Smart DCA are only triaged here because their full evidence belongs in the Research Library. The archived lines stay on this page so failed intuitions remain useful rather than disappearing from the portfolio.
Long-Only 和 Smart DCA 在这里先完成方向筛选，完整证据放在 Research Library。其他归档研究也留在本页，因为被证伪的直觉同样有价值，不应该从作品集里消失。
Many individual crypto investors naturally think in complete-sounding strategies: long the upside, short the downside, earn funding when neutral, rotate into stronger coins, grid the sideways market, and turn the system off during bad regimes.
很多个人投资者都会自然地想到一套看起来完整的 Crypto 策略：上涨做多、下跌做空、中性赚 funding、轮动强势币、震荡做网格，行情不好时再把系统关掉。
These intuitions are tested before more complexity is added. When the original idea does not hold up, the result should be kept rather than rescued with more conditions.
这些直觉要先经过验证，再决定是否值得增加复杂度。如果原始想法站不住，就应该把结论留下来，而不是继续加条件去补救。
The two lines that move forward solve different investor problems: spot long-only waits for strength on the right side, while Smart DCA organizes left-side accumulation. Their full evidence belongs in the Research Library.
最后继续推进的两条线，解决的是不同问题：现货 long-only 负责右侧参与，Smart DCA 负责左侧积累。详细证据放在 Research Library。