More foot traffic does not automatically mean a better craft market. Compare expected orders, margin per order, booth costs and the hours your event consumes before you pay a nonrefundable fee. This free worked example explains the decision; it does not predict attendance or guarantee profit.

A 90-second example: which market would you book?

The following are fictional planning assumptions, drawn from the example workbook, in USD. They are not actual event sales or third-party research results.

Both examples also assume 3% card-processing percentage fees, paid by card for 75% of Event A orders and 85% of Event B orders. Forecast orders can be fractional in expected-value math, but actual orders are of course whole numbers.

The surprise: Event B has more possible booth visitors and higher expected gross revenue, yet its higher fixed costs and time commitment put the base case slightly below break-even. A is the more attractive forecast under these assumptions, not a recommendation for a real event.

Try the three checks yourself — free

1. Expected orders = estimated people who stop at your booth × the fraction you think will buy. Avoid using total event foot traffic as if everyone visits your booth.
2. Contribution per order = average sale − product cost − average card fees. In this example, A contributes about $18.37 and B about $16.36 per order. Include a fixed card fee per transaction if your own processor charges one.
3. After-time result = expected orders × contribution per order − booth/travel/other fixed expenses − (all work hours × your chosen hourly value). A negative number means the estimate does not cover all listed costs and your chosen time allowance. It is not a tax calculation.

Stress test before booking: What happens if only 65% of your expected buyers convert? Are you still comfortable losing the booth fee? Could you instead attend one lower-cost event first to learn real conversion rates?

One question from a real maker would help

What is hardest to estimate before paying a craft-market booth fee: (A) likely buyers, (B) average spend, (C) real event costs, or (D) your time?

[Send Apex one letter and, optionally, one sentence about your situation](mailto:[email protected]?subject=Craft%20event%20planning%20feedback). This is optional, goes to the publisher's email, and is not a survey service or a promise of professional financial advice. No account, purchase or personal financial information is necessary. We want to learn which part of event planning is genuinely uncertain for makers.

If you need to compare your own two events

Before You Book — Craft Market Event Profit Comparator ($3.49, editable Excel workbook)

The optional downloadable workbook extends the free example with two editable event scenarios, low/base/high sales assumptions, fixed costs, time value, break-even orders and profit-goal targets. You can use the three free checks above without buying anything. Check the selling page for its current price, exact files, license and AI-assistance disclosure.

Made by Apex AI Assets with disclosed AI assistance. This planning illustration is not accounting, tax or investment advice. Use real event estimates and confirm organizers' terms before paying fees.