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Honest Accounts 2014
Honest Accounts 2017
Author’s Source for the $67.6 billion of illicit financial outflows
Issues with GFI numbers
GFI acknowledges issues
- https://www.cgdev.org/blog/illicit-financial-flows-and-trade-misinvoicing-time-reassess
- The updated numbers (Appendix Table I-3, pg 35) have the flows listed as percentages and have a high and low estimate. It also adds an extra year at the end, but it drops a year at the start. So the years aren’t perfectly aligned but 9/10 years are the same; we’re just removing 2004 and adding 2014. Since they never estimated the same exact years with their new methodology, we’ll have to live with it.
- South Africa Low: 0.05 x 1,709,543 = 85,477.15
- South Africa High: 0.09 x 1,709,543 = 153,858.87
- Zambia Low: 0.02 x 124,370 = 2,487.40
- Zambia High: 0.07 x 124,370 = 8,705.90
- New total
- Low: 85,477.15 + 2,487.40 = 87,964.55
- High: 153,858.87 + 8,705.90 = 162,564.77
- Decrease from initial GFI estimate
- Low: 238,072 - 87,964.55 = 150,107.45
- High: 238,072 - 162,564.77 = 75,507.23
- Average per year
- Low: 150,107.45 / 10 = 15,010.745 = $15 billion
- High: 75,507.23 / 10 = 7,550.723 = $7.6 billion
- Revised $67.6 billion Illicit financial outflows estimate
- Low: 67.6 - 15 = $52.6 billion
- High: 67.6 - 7.6 = $60 billion
- Revised $41.3 billion headline estimate
- Low: 41.3 - 15 = $26.3 billion
- High: 41.3 - 7.6 = $33.7 billion
Some “repatriated” profits they count as outflows are reinvested and don’t technically leave Africa (pg. 62)