• TL;DR: The right mechanism is just CPMM, mapping YES/NO shares to MAX/MIN values

  • Instead of betting on a “distribution”, use a Uniswap V3 Range Order/Liquidity injection

    • This is similar to betting on a bucket, but works for any arbitrary bucket range, I think?
      • [s] No, this is a completely different use case. Betting on a number / range ≠ providing liquidity within some interval.
    • Or buckets can be implemented using range orders

    https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-change-numeric-market

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    See also

    Numeric Buckets

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