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Launch: Aug 4, 2026

Ultimate sell-through goal: 54,000 single pouches

Campaign window: Aug 4 – Nov 16, 2026 (105 days) — goal is to sell through before BFCM kicks off.

This is a prelim forecast brief, not a live dashboard. It lays out the math, the offer breakdown, and how the actual dashboard/tracker should be structured.

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1. Top-line summary (what sits at the top of the dashboard)

A single header block with these live-updating fields:

Field	Formula
Total goal	54,000 pouches (adjustable input)
Total sold to date	Sum of pouches sold across all offers (live, pulled from Shopify/Omni)
% of goal sold	Total sold ÷ Total goal
Campaign day	Today − Aug 4, 2026
% through campaign	Campaign day ÷ 105 days
Pace status	Compare "% of goal sold" vs. "% through campaign" → flag Ahead, On Track, or Behind
Required daily pace (remaining)	(Total goal − Total sold) ÷ (105 − Campaign day) — this is the number that should update daily, not a static average

2. Offer breakdown

There are 6 sellable configurations across 4 offer types (2 of the 4 offers split by flavor — OG vs Coffee).

Offer	What's counted	Goal (Units) (adjustable input)	Goal (pouches) (adjustable input)	% of total goal	Avg/day to hit goal (over 105 days)
PSL Kit (2 bags + mailer, insert, sticker)	2 pouches per sale	22,000	44,000	81.5%	~419 pouches/day (~210 kits/day)
PSL Single Bag (cart upsell + post-purchase only)	1 pouch per sale	4000	4,000	7.4%	~38 pouches/day
OG Starter Kit + 1 PSL bag (test)	1 pouch per bundle sale	1500	1,500	2.8%	~14 pouches/day
Coffee Starter Kit + 1 PSL bag (test)	1 pouch per bundle sale	1500	1,500	2.8%	~14 pouches/day
OG Tin + 1 PSL bag (test)	1 pouch per bundle sale	1500	1,500	2.8%	~14 pouches/day
Coffee Tin + 1 PSL bag (test)	1 pouch per bundle sale	1500	1,500	2.8%	~14 pouches/day
Total			54,000	100%	~514/day

The 4 test bundles are an even 25% split of whatever pouch pool is left over (6,000 pouches ÷ 4 = 1,500 each), per your call — easy to reweight once we see which flavor/format sells better

3. Per-offer card layout

Each of the 6 rows above should be its own card/module with:

Goal — editable number field, defaults to the table above but should be freely adjustable per offer (e.g. if OG Tin+PSL is outperforming, bump its goal up and pull down Coffee Starter Kit's — as long as the offer goals still roll up to 54,000 total, or note if you want the 54,000 total itself to flex).
Sold to date — pulled from Shopify/Omni (see tracking notes below).
% to goal — Sold ÷ Goal.
Days elapsed / days remaining — shared campaign clock (Aug 4 → Nov 16).
Required daily pace — (Goal − Sold) ÷ Days remaining. This is the number that should recalculate daily — it's more useful than the static 105-day average once the campaign is underway, since it tells you what pace you need from today to still land the goal.
Status flag — Ahead / On Track / Behind, based on comparing actual daily run-rate vs. required daily pace.

4. Tracking & attribution

1. Original Starter Kit + PSL

Admin: https://admin.shopify.com/store/mud-wtr/products/8689195122871