Run note 2026-07-19 (Run 45) — Kimi K3's DeepSeek moment 2.0nDrafted (not yet posted): Run 45 page. Story: Moonshot's Kimi K3 (shipped July 16) triggered a real market reaction — TSMC -7% July 17 same day it reported 77% profit jump, echoing Nvidia's -$590B DeepSeek R1 crash (Jan 2025). Buried detail: full weights aren't public until July 27, so the market repriced on anticipation, not proof. Paired with China's National Data Administration confirming 140T daily AI tokens in March (+40% vs Dec, ~1,000x vs early 2024). Direct sequel to Run 43 (Kimi K3 vs Opus 4.8 benchmark, drafted 2026-07-16, still unposted, engagement never executed that session due to Chrome being unreachable).nn**Strategy analysis (per the standing "evaluate + update" instruction):**n- Impressions trail so far: Run 41 = 210 @ 23h, Run 42 = 4 @ 23h (auto-attach flow, suspected culprit), Run 43 = pending / not yet measurable (never posted), Run 44 = 10/10 engagement done but post also not yet posted. Rahil is sitting on 2 unposted drafts (Run 43, Run 44) plus this one (Run 45) — the bottleneck right now is publishing, not content generation. Recommend batching a manual posting session to clear the backlog and start generating real impression data again; without that, the impressions-vs-content feedback loop stays broken.n- Run 44 confirmed cost-per-task is a hot organic sub-topic (other creators converging on the same "leaderboard rank vs cost rank" point independently). Today's Run 45 deliberately does NOT repeat that angle — rotates to market-reaction/anticipation framing on the same underlying Kimi K3 story instead of re-litigating cost-per-task, per the "harder edge next time" note from Run 44.n- Run 43's engagement never happened (browser unavailable). Run 45 closes that gap by running the 10-comment engagement pass on Kimi K3 / Moonshot AI / DeepSeek-moment search terms, which serves both runs' stories since they're the same underlying model release.n- Parked from Run 44, still owed: Fireworks AI $1.5B Series D (funding/business pillar), Gemini 3.5 Pro full how-to walkthrough.

• Engagement: 10/10 completed this run, after Chrome reconnected mid-session (initial 3 retries failed, then tabs_context_mcp succeeded). This closes out both Run 45's plan and Run 43's previously unexecuted pass (same underlying Kimi K3 story). Search terms: "Kimi K3", "Moonshot AI", "TSMC Kimi". Mix of questions, opinions, appreciation, and hooks tying back to the TSMC/July-27-anticipation angle. All verified live via screenshot ("RAHIL JAIN · You" under each post). Lesson for future runs: Chrome connectivity can flip from unreachable to working within the same session, worth a retry before giving up on engagement entirely.
• Engagement: 10/10 completed this run, after Chrome reconnected mid-session (initial 3 retries failed, then tabs_context_mcp succeeded). This closes out both Run 45's plan and Run 43's previously unexecuted pass (same underlying Kimi K3 story). Search terms: "Kimi K3", "Moonshot AI", "TSMC Kimi". Mix of questions, opinions, appreciation, and hooks tying back to the TSMC/July-27-anticipation angle. All verified live via screenshot ("RAHIL JAIN · You" under each post). Lesson for future runs: Chrome connectivity can flip from unreachable to working within the same session, worth a retry before giving up on engagement entirely.nn---nn

Run 43 — 2026-07-16 — Kimi K3 beats Opus 4.8nDrafted (not yet posted): Run 43 page. Story: Moonshot AI's Kimi K3, largest open model ever (2.8T params), beats Claude Opus 4.8 on GDPval-AA v2 at half the cost. Continues China open-weight vs US frontier thesis (Run 33 lineage). First run to lead with an open model beating a closed frontier model on benchmark rather than just cost.nnEngagement not executed this run. Browser/Chrome was unreachable in this session (tool reported "Chrome is not running"), so live LinkedIn commenting was skipped to avoid posting blind or risking the wrong-account failure mode (Shilika vs Rahil, see Chrome Browser Accounts learning). 10-comment plan is documented in the Run 43 page, ready to execute next session with a working browser connection. Flag: verify Chrome/computer-use tool availability at the start of future scheduled runs before promising engagement.nn---nn

Where we track what worked and update the playbook.

How to use

1. Every evening, log the day's post in the table below.
2. Every Sunday, review and add a Strategy Update entry.
3. Update the main Content Strategy doc with any new learning.

Daily log

Run note 2026-05-18 — Sierra / 89% revenue concentration

Topic: 89% of AI startup revenue goes to OpenAI + Anthropic, Sierra is the $15.8B exception. Three things Sierra got right that 99% of wrappers got wrong.

Posted to: LinkedIn (live, post URL in Run subpage) and X (live, post URL in Run subpage).

Engagement: 10 LinkedIn comments + 10 X replies on similar posts. Mix: founders, VC commentators, enterprise builders, CX architects.

Early signal: Both platforms accepted the post on first attempt. X confirmation toast on every reply. LinkedIn inline comment box reliable across all 10 targets.

Working hypothesis to validate this week: Spicy-take posts that bridge one macro stat to one specific company example (89% concentration + Sierra's $950M) outperform pure model-release news for AI entrepreneur ICP engagement. Compare save rate to Tuesday's post.

Strategy edit applied to playbook: Carousel template is now a hard blocker. Three text-only posts in a row is the gap most likely to be capping reach. Build the 3-slide template in Canva before next post.

Open follow-ups: Pull 24h analytics tomorrow. Reply to incoming comments inside the first 90 min window. Add @aakashgupta and @TheBenValentin to Top Creators page — both ship the exact ICP voice register and posted directly on today's thesis.

Weekly strategy updates