Uncertainty bad

This is called "capital flight"

The most rigorous recent macro evidence for the U.S. finds that tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently—and reduce employment—while trade-policy uncertainty is contractionary as well.
Consistent with your “no‑hire, no‑fire” mechanism, state‑level evidence shows that greater exposure to trade policy uncertainty reduces hours and employment mainly via the extensive margin, because firms postpone hiring.
And the last trade war’s micro evidence lines up: import protection did not deliver local job gains in newly protected sectors, while retaliatory tariffs produced clear employment losses—exactly the kind of environment that freezes vacancies and mobility without requiring a layoff wave.