- Sequence-of-Returns risk refers to the order in which investment returns occur in retirement.
- Early negative returns (e.g., a market drop in the first few years of retirement) can dramatically reduce portfolio longevity, because retirees are withdrawing funds while the market is down.
- Even if the long-term average return is fine, bad early years can deplete savings faster than expected.
Example:
- Portfolio starts with $1,000,000.
- Retiree withdraws $50,000 per year.
- Market drops 20% in the first year → remaining balance is $950,000 × 0.8 = $760,000
- Withdrawals continue → the portfolio may be depleted much faster than if the same losses happened later.
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2️⃣ How FIAs Help Mitigate Sequence-of-Returns Risk
✅ Guaranteed Minimum Return
- FIAs typically offer a guaranteed minimum interest rate (often 0–1%).
- Even if the market index drops, the principal does not decrease, preventing withdrawals from eroding capital during bad years.
✅ Market Upside Participation
- FIAs allow participation in market gains through index-linked crediting strategies, often with caps or participation rates.
- This lets retirees benefit from positive returns without exposure to market losses, smoothing growth over time.
✅ Optional Lifetime Income Rider
- Some FIAs offer a Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) or similar rider.
- Provides stable income regardless of market performance, decoupling withdrawals from portfolio fluctuations.
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