如果只推荐一个演讲,Warren 在 1998 年在 Florida 的演讲 会是选择之一。 这篇演讲是巴菲特给佛罗里达大学的 MBA 的毕业生的演讲,整个内容精彩绝伦,以至于每年自己都会有意无意的看一遍。
在这篇演讲的末尾,有学生提出了最后一个问题:
this is going to sound disgusting, the question is, what would I do if I were going to live over again and have a happier life?
这听起来有些不堪入耳,但问题是:如果我能重来一次,如何让生活更幸福?
老巴并没有直接回答这个问题,而是提出了一个思想实验:
"Let's just assume that it was 24 hours before you were born and a genie came to you and he said, 'Herb, you look very promising and I've got a big problem. I've got to design the world in which you're going to live.' And he said, 'I've decided to hell with it. It's too tough. You design it. So you've got 24 hours. You figure out what the social rules should be, the economic rules, the governmental rules, and you're going to live under those and your kids are going to live under them and their kids are going to live under.' And you say, 'I can design anything?' And the genie says, 'Yeah, you can do it.' And you say, 'Well, there must be a catch.' He says, 'Well, there is a catch. You don't know whether you're going to be born black or white, rich or poor, male or female, infirm or able-bodied, bright or retarded. All you know is you're going to take one ball.'”
假设现在是你出生前的24小时,一位精灵来找你,对你说:“Herb,你看起来很有潜力,但我遇到了一个大问题。我需要设计你即将生活的世界。” 然后他说:“我决定不管了,这太难了。你来设计吧。你有24小时的时间来决定这个世界的社会规则、经济规则、政府规则,而且你将生活在这些规则之下,你的孩子和他们的孩子也会生活在这些规则之下。” 你会问:“我可以设计任何东西吗?” 精灵说:“对,你可以设计。” 你接着说:“那一定有什么限制吧?” 精灵说:“确实有一个限制。你不知道你会出生为黑人还是白人,富有还是贫穷,男性还是女性,身体健全还是残疾,聪明还是智力低下。你唯一知道的是,你会随机抽取一个球。
在这个思想实验中,Warren 给出了一个视角,什么样社会是值得期待的社会,即这个社会即能保证效率(生产更多的商品和服务)的同时,又能兼顾那些拿错了球的弱势群体。
You're going to want a system, design a system that's going to produce lots of goods and services because you're going to want people on balance to live well. And you're going to want it that produces more and more so your kids live better than you do and your grandchildren live better than the kids. But you're also going to want a system that if it does produce lots of goods and services, does not leave behind a person that accidentally got the wrong ball and is not well wired for this particular system.
你需要一个系统,设计一个能够生产大量商品和服务的系统,因为你希望人们能够生活得很好。你会希望它能生产越来越多的东西,这样你的孩子就能比你生活得更好,你的孙子也能比孩子们生活得更好。但是,你也希望这个系统在生产大量商品和服务的同时,不会留下一个不小心拿错了球的人,因为他不适合这个特殊的系统。